What the heck is Lead Lag? Lead Lag is an engineering term that is typically used in thermodynamics but is applicable to a broad range of things. In thermodynamics, it means that energy is applied and there is then a delay as that energy soaks into the system before the full effect is felt (ergo: the temperature rises). The reason this is important in terms of climate change is that what we do today in regards to green house gas emissions, can take up to 10 years to have its full impact on the climate system. CO2 that comes out of the exhaust pipes, home gas appliances, electrical generating facilities goes into the atmosphere and takes about 3-4 yrs for 70% of it to blend in, raising the ppm level and cause warming. It takes another 6 yrs for the last 30% to fully impact and then hundred years to be re-absorbed or break down once in place.
So, if we all woke up tomorrow and lowered emissions to zero, the ppm levels would continue to rise for the next 10yrs before flattening out and then staying at that level for several human lifetimes unless we come up with a way to accelerate removal from the atmosphere (no free lunch here but consensus is planting 1.5 trillion trees is probably the most effect way, however, those trees will take 40-50 yrs to grow). Just look what is happening this year of the pandemic. Emissions from staying at home are predicted to go down 4-7% but the ppm level is still rising. Not a cheery picture but rather than hide our heads in the sand or party on, we collectively need to start dropping our emissions asap and realize that if we don’t, we can make it much worse.
Now, I am sure that those of you who have been paying attention, know the CO2 ppm chart that shows things cruising along at around 280 ppm for the last 10,000 yrs until around 1850 when the industrial revolution kicked in (can you say burning coal?) and it started going up. In the last 20-30 yrs the rate of increase has almost gone straight up to the current level of 418 ppm. At this level, we are seeing big changes in the form of storms, fires, record heat, crop failures, sea level rise, polar and glacial ice melting, etc… As noted above, this is the new normal and not going to change. Frankly, we humans can breathe in up to 3000 ppm CO2 and not drop dead, although you will start to get a pretty big headache and start to have some cognitive issues. However, that stuff that is going on at 418 is going to be so much worse that we might not survive for other reasons that are not hard to imagine.
So what to do, then? As much as you might tolerate my ranting and raving here, we need to get to work in reducing our personal carbon footprint. We also need to think about what things are going to look like in the next 10-20 yrs as we inevitably head towards 450 ppm, tipping points and an increasingly challenging World. CASA is here to help and in my next blog, I will share what I am doing with the Washington sustainability demonstration farm project. It is not hopeless and those who prepare will be in a much better position to deal with the challenges ahead.
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