It is pretty obvious why reducing emissions is going to be hard since getting to net zero is more than just converting to EV’s and electrification via renewables. A recent article by William Ripple of Oregon State University (An environmental and socially just climate mitigation pathway for a planet in peril) touches on what will be a truly challenging societal element dealing with climate change. That is, in summary, we need to be prepared to live with a lot less so we don’t exceed the planet’s ability to sustain our human population. This is going to be really hard for most of us first worlders who will have to give up a lot. Early blog posts talk about this but I thought this article brings the subject to the fore.
To effectively address climate change, it is essential for governments to take holistic action that prioritizes equity and social justice. However, the situation presents a challenge as the current viewpoint is rooted in continued growth, which limits consideration of different perspectives, including those of diverse and vulnerable poplations. The climate crisis requires immediate action, but a long-term perspective is also important given the magnitude of the necessary changes and the ultimate goal of cooling our planet back down to a safe level.
As the world grapples with the urgent need to address the climate crisis, it is crucial for researchers to combine ecological, social, and climate domains in future scenarios, so that the cross-linkages become apparent. While technology no doubt represents a critical part of the solution, its potentially unlimited and extensive use could create new problems given that the planet’s resources are finite and already under tremendous strain. Ecological overshoot or the overexploitation of the Earth is the cause of multiple environmental and social crises, and policies should focus on addressing this issue rather than simply treating the symptoms. As human demand continues to exceed planetary boundaries and the regenerative capacity of nature, we are at increased risk from not only climate change, but a confluence of crises, including biodiversity loss, species extinctions, freshwater shortage, food scarcity, civil unrest, international wars, pollution, and zoonotic diseases and more pandemics (Guterres 2023, Rockström et al 2023). Mitigating overexploitation and these crises will require global cooperation to address inequality and injustice.
Adding a restorative pathway-like scenario to climate models would provide a more comprehensive picture of what could lie ahead and help decision-makers prepare for a sustainable future that may look vastly different from the current paradigm of population and consumption growth. We understand that our proposed scenario may be a major challenge to implement (like SSP1), considering trends in emissions, a lack of political will and widespread social denial (Norgaard 2011), but only if something like the restorative pathway is included as an input to climate models, will we be able to debate its merits. The plausibility of the SSPs and restorative pathway should be systematically considered (see supplemental discussion on scenario likelihood). Political and popular support for the restorative pathway could be achieved through radical incrementalism—a framework based on achieving radical or significant change by making a series of smaller changes and continuously evaluating their effectiveness (Halpern and Mason 2015). In addition to curbing fossil fuel emissions, we need small incremental steps towards bending all the curves in figure 1.
As we witness the goal of the Paris agreement slipping away, avoiding even a tenth of a degree of future global heating is still of utmost importance. It is time to acknowledge that business-as-usual for a planet in peril is no longer viable and that we must start planning for a world that prioritizes conservation, sustainability, resilience, and equity. Ultimately, addressing climate change will require a coordinated effort to not only reduce emissions and support vulnerable communities, but also make incremental long-term changes for humanity and other life on Earth.
For full article, go to: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad059e