As hurricane Milton closes in on the west coast of Florida, who can say how much longer humanity has before we’ve crossed a threshold and chaos will take over? As stated in the article below, things are getting bad and we remain not fully committed to getting off our addiction to fossil fuels which is by no means an easy task since so much of the fabric of our existence is buoyed by their use. That said, it is becoming increasingly inevitable that chaos will arrive at some point if we are not careful. I can’t say when that will occur, nor can I guarantee a safe way to weather the storm. I can only recommend that one considers how to hedge your bet and invest in strategies that may improve you and your family’s chances. That is what CASA is hoping to do and our project in Washington will attempt to demonstrate. Meanwhile, aggressively work on reducing your dependence on the fossil fuel economy and simplify your consumption of resources. SZ
An international coalition led by Oregon State University scientists concludes in its annual report published in BioScience that the Earth’s worsening vital signs indicate a “critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis” and that “decisive action is needed, and fast.”
The collaboration directed by OSU’s William Ripple and former postdoctoral researcher Christopher Wolf outlines areas where policy change is needed—energy, pollutants, nature, food and economy. The report is titled “The 2024 State of the Climate Report: Perilous Times on Planet Earth.”
“A large portion of the very fabric of life on our planet is imperiled,” said Ripple, a distinguished professor in the Oregon State University College of Forestry. “We’re already in the midst of abrupt climate upheaval, which jeopardizes the life on Earth like nothing humans have ever seen. Ecological overshoot, taking more than the Earth can safely give, has pushed the planet into climatic conditions more threatening than anything witnessed even by our prehistoric relatives.”
Of the 35 planetary vital signs the scientists use to track climate change annually, 25 are at record extremes, he notes.
The three hottest days ever came in July 2024, and fossil fuel emissions are at an all-time high, as are the human population and the ruminant livestock population, the climate report shows.
Human population is increasing at the rate of approximately 200,000 people per day, and the number of ruminant livestock—hoofed mammals such as cattle, sheep and goats that produce greenhouse gases and are energy intensive to raise—rises by roughly 170,000 each day.
The annual consumption of fossil fuels climbed by 1.5% in 2023, mainly because of big jumps in coal (1.6%) and oil use (2.5%), the report indicates.
Renewable energy use also increased in 2023—solar and wind consumption together were up 15% over 2022. But the use of renewables is just one-fourteenth of fossil fuel use, and the recent rise in the use of renewables is attributable mainly to increased demand rather than because they are replacing fossil fuels.
The report shows that annual tree cover loss globally rose from 22.8 million hectares in 2022 to 28.3 million in 2023, and based on global year-to-date averages, the concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane are at all-time highs.
“The growth rate of methane emissions has been accelerating, which is extremely troubling,” said Wolf, now a scientist with Corvallis-based Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates, known as TERA. “Nitrous oxide, which is potent and long-lived, is also at a record high.”
Other points of concern from the report, Wolf notes, are:
- The Earth’s average surface temperature is at an all-time high.
- Ocean acidity and heat content, as well as average global sea level, are at record extremes.
- Greenland ice mass, Antarctica ice mass and average glacier thickness are at all-time lows.
- Twenty-eight amplifying feedback loops—those that exacerbate climate change, such as permafrost thawing—have been identified.
- In 2023, there were an estimated 2,325 heat-related deaths in the United States, a 117% increase from 1999.
“Since the publication of our 2023 report, multiple climate-related disasters have taken place, including a series of heat waves across Asia that killed more than a thousand people and led to temperatures reaching 122 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of India,” Ripple said.
“Climate change has already displaced millions of people, with the potential to displace hundreds of millions or even billions. That would likely lead to greater geopolitical instability, possibly even partial societal collapse.”