Climate Change, the Great Displacer

(This article from Statista is one of many coming out during COP26 since so much of the World’s attention is for the moment, focused on Climate Change.  I would argue that is ignores population growth as a primary driver of water scarcity which is exacerbated by climate change along with sea level rise.  In India alone, over 600 million people are suffering from water scarcity due to over extraction of ground water aquifers.  Iran, Pakistan, Iraq and Turkey are all on a similar path.  Combined, there are 2 billion people at risk of severe water scarcity, so although the 170 million citied below is a huge number, I would offer that it is the tip of the iceberg, making Syria’s migration example a drop in the bucket.  SZ)

If the trajectory of high greenhouse gas emissions and unequal development continues unchallenged, an average of 170 million people across six regions will be subjected to internal migration by 2050. This figure is the result of extensive scenario modeling undertaken by World Bank analysts in their updated Groundswell report. As our chart shows, the region of Sub-Saharan Africa will be impacted the most.

Approximately 71 million people will have to migrate in the confines of the African subregion due to slow-onset climate change that can already be observed today in the most vulnerable parts of the world. For example, storms and floods have already displaced roughly 21 million people in South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific in 2020, while rising temperatures in many countries of Sub-Saharan Africa dependent on rainfed agriculture and coastal erosion in West Africa are already leading to migration to other African countries.

Of course, these numbers are not set in stone and are largely dependent on the implementation of policies like carbon neutrality by the Global North, since the most vulnerable countries are generally seen to be on track concerning the limitation of global warming to 1.5°C established in the Paris Agreement of 2015. More developed countries like Canada, China, Russia or the United States are expected to miss this mark by a considerable margin. This discrepancy was also addressed at the COP26 climate summit currently taking place in Glasgow, with leaders from poorer countries reportedly being “extremely concerned” and disappointed in the actions taken by the G20 to combat climate change.

This chart shows the average number of internal climate migrants by 2050 per region.

© Provided by Statista Average number of internal climate migrants by 2050 per region